Every fixture on the site is run through 10 independent methods. Each one casts a vote for a home win, a draw or an away win, and the H:D:A column is simply the count: 5:2:1 means five said home, two said draw, one said away.
A fixture is a tip when one outcome collects at least 6 of the 10 votes. That is the bar the tips page, the front page and the strike-rate record all use, and it is the same six-model agreement the site has always demanded - the panel just grew from six to ten when the Poisson goal model, the xG model, the learned Logit model and the bookmakers' market joined it. The market abstains on fixtures it has not priced yet, so those have nine voters.
Early in a season the six form models have nothing to go on and all vote draw, which would read as a draw tip with only Poisson, xG, Logit and the market dissenting. So until both sides have played3 games the vote is set aside and a fixture is an early-season call instead: a tip when at least two of Poisson, xG, Logit and the market are available and three-quarters of them (all, when only two or three) back the same outcome - the xG model only counts once it has diverged from Poisson. Those slips are marked as such, and the ten-model vote takes over from each side's fourth game.
Every model column shows its own number and a small H / D / A badge for its call; on played games a tick or cross marks whether the call was right, and the table footer keeps a running strike rate per model, so you can see which methods earn their vote and which are passengers. Poisson and the market also carry over-2.5-goals percentages, and a green Value badge marks games where Poisson and the market disagree by five points or more.
| Model | Column | Type | In one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Footy Forecast | FFPForcast | form | Points percentage from the last 5 home games v last 5 away games, blended to one 0-100 number. |
| Score Prediction | PredictScore | goals | Goals for and against over the last 5 games, turned into a scoreline via a lookup table. |
| Win Draw Loss | WinDrawLoss | form | Season-to-date home record v away record, as home/draw/away percentages. |
| Rate Form | Rate | rating | Elo-style points rating: teams stake into a kitty each game and the winner takes it. |
| Simple | Simple | form | Recency-weighted points from each side's last 5 games; the column is the gap. |
| Superiority | Super | goals | Goal-difference histograms over the last 10 games, home v mirrored away. |
| Poisson new | Poisson | goals | Attack/defence strengths and expected goals; the full score-probability grid, from matchday one. |
| xG model new | XG | goals | Poisson driven by expected goals for/against (SofaScore xG captured after every game) instead of actual goals. |
| Logit new | Logit | learned | Logistic regression trained on six past seasons: each side's last-25-game goals, expected goals and points. |
| Line-up model new | Line-up | line-ups | Poisson baseline adjusted for the actual XI - ratings, values, absentees, new-manager bounce, derbies - then simulated. Late signal, not a voter. |
| Market & Value new | Market | market | Bookmaker-implied probabilities with the margin removed, and where Poisson disagrees with them. |
None of the ten voters see line-ups, injuries, suspensions, managerial change or rivalry. The line-up model does - it is computed when the teamsheet lands, about 75 minutes before kick-off, and shown beside the morning call rather than counted in it.