« How the models work

Footy Forecast

column: FFPForcast votes in H:D:A

A points-percentage form method from the old football pools. It scores each side's recent record on a 0-100 scale and blends them into one number: 50 is a coin-toss, higher favours the home side, lower the away side.

How it works
  1. Take the home team's last 5 home games and the away team's last 5 away games (this season only).
  2. Score each run as points won as a percentage of the 15 available: (3 × wins + draws) / 15 × 100.
  3. Combine them: forecast = (home% + (100 − away%)) / 2. A strong home record and a weak away record both push the number up.
Worked example
Home side, last 5 at homeW W D L W → 10 pts → 67%
Away side, last 5 awayL D L W L → 4 pts → 27%
Forecast(67 + (100 − 27)) / 2 = 70 → home win
How BetChair calls it

Above 60 = home win, below 40 = away win, anything in between = draw. Early in a season, when a side has fewer than five games, the missing games count as zero points, so the number drifts towards 50 until the sample fills.

Where it shines
  • Uses home form for the home side and away form for the away side, which matters more than most people expect.
  • Simple to sanity-check by eye.
Where it falls down
  • Only five games, so one freak result moves it a lot.
  • Ignores who those games were against.
  • Cold at the start of a season: everything reads 50 until games are played.

See it on the fixtures table (tick the column under Columns → Predictions) and on every tips slip. Related: Simple, Win Draw Loss.