The most literal method on the site: how often does the home team win at home, and how often does the away team lose away? Combine the two records into home/draw/away percentages.
How it works
Count the home team's home wins, draws and losses so far this season (HW, HD, HL) and the away team's away wins, draws and losses (AW, AD, AL).
Home win % = (HW + AL) / total, draw % = (HD + AD) / total, away win % = (AW + HL) / total, where total is all six counts added together.
The biggest of the three percentages is the call; a tie between two of them counts as a draw. Before either side has played, all three are 0 and the vote defaults to a draw - the same is true of every form model, which is why early-season fixtures show six draw votes.
Where it shines
Uses the whole season, so it steadies as the season goes on.
Transparent: you can check it against the league table.
Where it falls down
Treats a win in August exactly like a win last week - no recency weighting.