« How the models work

Simple

column: Simple votes in H:D:A

A weighted form sequence: points from each side's last five games, with the most recent game counting five times as much as the oldest. The column is the gap between the two sides.

How it works
  1. Take each team's last 5 games, home or away.
  2. Score them 3 / 1 / 0 for win / draw / loss, then weight: most recent ×5, then ×4, ×3, ×2, oldest ×1 (maximum 45).
  3. Simple = home team's weighted points − away team's weighted points.
Worked example
Home, oldest → newestW D L L W → 3×1 + 1×2 + 0×3 + 0×4 + 3×5 = 20
Away, oldest → newestW W D D D → 3×1 + 3×2 + 1×3 + 1×4 + 1×5 = 21
Simple20 − 21 = −1 → draw
How BetChair calls it

+3 or more = home win, −3 or less = away win, between = draw.

Where it shines
  • Recency-weighted, so it reacts to a change in form faster than the season-long methods.
  • Easy to reason about.
Where it falls down
  • Ignores home/away and opposition entirely.
  • Five games with heavy weights on the last two - noisy.

See it on the fixtures table (tick the column under Columns → Predictions) and on every tips slip. Related: Footy Forecast.