The Simple Sequence method is not just a single method, there are many ways of devising a simple sequence method, you could probably devise one of your own. The way the Simple Sequence method is implemented in BetChair.co.uk is to use a weighting factor on each of a series of games. Lets see how this works. | ||
A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date. So lets say our team has the following results (newest on the right hand side): W D L L W This would give them the following points: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7 Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following: 3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20points Now lets say the away team playing against the team above have the following record: W W D D D They will have: 3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points. The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1. Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw. |