A goals-based method that turns recent scoring and conceding into a predicted scoreline, then reads the winner off that score.
How it works
Take the home team's last 5 home games and the away team's last 5 away games.
Add up goals: home goals for (HGF), home goals against (HGA), away goals for (AGF), away goals against (AGA).
Home goal points HGP = HGF + AGA (what the home side scores plus what the visitors leak); away goal points AGP = HGA + AGF.
The difference GPD = HGP − AGP picks the shape of the result: +2 or more home win, −2 or less away win, otherwise draw.
Two "score points" totals add a bonus for big scores: HGSP = HGP + goals from home games with 3+ scored + away opponents' 3+ concessions, and the mirror for the away side.
HGSP and AGSP are looked up in a fixed table (36 rows, one per GPD/threshold combination) to give the actual scoreline.
Worked example
Home, last 5 at home
3-3, 1-0, 4-1, 0-2, 2-1 → HGF 10, HGA 7
Away, last 5 away
0-1, 2-2, 0-3, 6-0, 1-3 → AGF 9, AGA 9
Goal points
HGP 19, AGP 16, GPD +3 → home win
Score points
HGSP 19 + 7 + 6 = 32, AGSP 16 + 6 + 3 = 25
Lookup
home >30 → 3, away >17 → 2 → 3-2
How BetChair calls it
The vote is simply the predicted score's winner: home goals > away goals = home win, fewer = away win, level = draw. With no games played the lookup lands on 0-0, which is why the first fixtures of a season all read 0-0.
Where it shines
Gives an actual scoreline, which the H/D/A methods cannot.
Rewards teams that score freely and punishes leaky defences.
Where it falls down
The lookup table is hand-tuned from years ago, not fitted to current data.
Five games is a small sample; a 6-0 skews it for weeks.
Two teams with identical stats always get the same score - it has no idea about home advantage beyond the split samples.