A goal-difference histogram method. Instead of asking whether teams won, it asks by how much, and lines the home side's margins up against the away side's margins reversed.
How it works
Take each team's last 10 games (home or away) and record the goal difference of each, capped at ±5.
Build a 13-bucket count from −6 to +6 for the home team. Build the same for the away team but mirrored: an away win by 2 counts in the −2 bucket, because from the fixture's point of view that is a home defeat by 2.
Add the two histograms. Buckets above 0 are home-win evidence, 0 is draw evidence, below 0 is away-win evidence.
Express the three totals as percentages: home:draw:away.
away 2, draw 2, home 7 of 11 non-empty entries … shown as 64:18:18
How BetChair calls it
The largest of the three percentages is the call; a tie counts as a draw. Sides with no games yet contribute nothing, so early in a season it reads 00:00:00 and votes draw.
Where it shines
Distinguishes a 4-0 side from a 1-0 side.
Ten games is the longest window of the form methods, so it is a bit steadier.